Development trend of global terrorist attacks and analysis on casualty risk

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.06.022

Abstract

Abstract: In order to reveal evolution trend of global terrorism, based on GTD, temporal and spatial evolution trends of terrorist attack numbers and causalities over last 50 years were analyzed. Then, characteristics of such attacks were analyzed from aspects of areas, weapon types and targets, and a quantitative model of casualty risk and a four-level risk classification standard for terrorist attacks were proposed. The results show that sub-Saharan Africa is at the highest risk geographically, while among all weapon types, transportation as a weapon features the highest risk of casualties. For attack targets, military, civilian and non-state militias are at the highest risk. In summary, global terrorist attacks still evolve in a grim way, and the quantitative model of casualties puts an end to subjectivity of experience assessment.

Key words: terrorist attacks, casualty risk, global terrorism database (GTD), development trend, risk rating

CLC Number:

X913.4

XU Xingpeng, XU Qingfeng, FANG Zhiming, LYU Wei, HUANG Rongyan. Development trend of global terrorist attacks and analysis on casualty risk[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(6): 170-175.

References

[1] 梅传强,张永强. 我国恐怖活动犯罪的现状、特征及防控对策[J]. 北京师范大学学报:社会科学版, 2015(6): 174-182.
MEI Chuanqiang, ZHANG Yongqiang. The status quo, characteristics and countermeasures of terrorist crimes in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University:Social Sciences, 2015(6): 174-182.
[2] 乔顺利. 我国恐怖袭击的特点及其应对策略研究[J]. 新疆警察学院学报, 2015,35(3): 16-20.
QIAO Shunli. On characteristics and counter-measures of terrorism crimes in China[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Police College, 2015,35(3): 16-20.
[3] 王冠. 地铁反暴恐处置策略[J]. 铁道警察学院学报, 2016,26(4): 55-58.
WANG Guan. On the disposal of violent terrorism events on subway[J]. Journal of Railway Police College, 2016,26(4): 55-58.
[4] 杨新贺, 亐道远. 铁路安全恐怖风险防范研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019,29(增1): 145-149.
YANG Xinhe, QU Daoyuan. Research on prevention of railway safety and terrorist risks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019,29(S1): 145-149.
[5] MA Liang, CHEN Bin,QIU Sihang, et al. Agent-based modeling of emergency evacuation in a railway station square under sarin terrorist attack[J]. International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing, 2017, 8(2): DOI:10.1142/S1793962317500222.
[6] 刘晓山, 门甜. 恐怖主义犯罪对民航领域的渗透及其防控[J]. 铁道警察学院学报, 2018,28(3): 18-25.
LIU Xiaoshan, MEN Tian. Infiltration and prevention of the terrorist crimes in civil aviation[J]. Journal of Railway Police College, 2018,28(3): 18-25.
[7] REUTER C, PTSCH K, RUNFT E. IT for peace? fighting against terrorism in social media: an explorative twitter study[J]. De Gruyter, 2017, 16(2): 181-193.
[8] 郑超慧,吴建松,胡啸峰,等.复杂街区脏弹恐怖袭击下放射性物质扩散模拟[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(9): 134-141.
ZHENG Chaohui, WU Jiansong, HU Xiaofeng, et al. Simulation of radionuclides dispersion under dirty bomb attack with complex street geometry[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018,28(9): 134-141.
[9] BAGCHI A, PAUL J A. Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (middle east, north africa, afghanistan, and pakistan) region[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2018,64: 9-20.
[10] HUERTA A, PADILLA P. Understanding the interrelationship between global terrorist attacks and the citizen's wellbeing: the complexity of terrorism[J]. Sociology, 2016,6(5): 283-292.
[11] FALODE A J. Terrorism 4.0: a global and structural analysis[J]. Open Political Science, 2018, 1(1): 153-163.
[12] 周骥, 李丽娟, 陆惠龙, 等. 浅议网络恐怖主义现状、发展趋势及对策[J]. 武警学院学报, 2018,34(10): 78-83.
ZHOU Ji, LI Lijuan, LU Huilong, et al. Discussion on cyberterrorism's present situation, development trend and countermeasures[J]. Journal of the Armed Police Academy, 2018,34(10): 78-83.
[13] 姜丁菊, 刘学文, 姜晓雪. 基于聚类的恐袭事件嫌疑人与可疑据点预测[J]. 重庆工商大学学报:自然科学版,2019,36(3): 18-23.
JIANG Dingju, LIU Xuewen, JIANG Xiaoxue. Cluster-based terrorist attack suspects and suspicious base prediction[J]. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition, 2019,36(3): 18-23.
[14] 刘明辉. 基于K-means聚类分析的民航系统恐怖主义风险评估[J]. 数据分析与知识发现, 2018,2(10): 21-26.
LIU Minghui. Risk assessment of civil aviation terrorism based on K-means clustering[J]. Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery, 2018,2(10): 21-26.
[15] 戴联双, 汤长江, 冯治中, 等.油气管道恐怖袭击风险评估方法与应用[J]. 油气储运, 2011,30(5):337-339,314.
DAI Lianshuang, TANG Changjiang, FENG Zhizhong, et al. Risk assessment methodology and application for oil and gas pipelines' terrorist attack[J]. OIL & GAS Storage and Transportation, 2011, 30(5): 337-339,314.
[16] START. Global terrorism database(2018) [EB/OL]. [2020-04-28]. http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd.
[17] ASONGU S, TCHAMYOU V S, MINKOUA J R, et al. Fighting terrorism in Africa: benchmarking policy harmonization[J]. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2018,492: 1 931-1 957.
[18] 中华人民共和国国务院.生产安全事故报告和调查处理条例[L].2007-06-01.
[19] 李玉梅. 数据的正态性检验方法[J]. 怀化学院学报, 2015,34(11): 81-82.
LI Yumei. The methods for testing normal distributing of data[J]. Journal of Huaihua University, 2015, 34(11): 81-82.